IDC Outlook for Mobile Growth Negative -8.3%

The worldwide mobile phone market was influenced the economic crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008 - shipments fell 11.6% year over year. It was the first time the holiday quarter has not recorded double digit growth in seven years.

This closed out a year that was dismal at best, yet overall 2008 managed to grow 4.3% over 2007. This has set the stage for what IDC predicts to be a very rough 2009, with the most recent market forecast anticipating growth of -8.3% for the year.

Mature regions such as Japan, the United States and Western Europe all face tough times, with predictions of shipment declines ranging from -24.6% to -12.4% throughout 2009. In these markets, operators are struggling to find the right mix of marketing and device subsidy to entice consumers to spend while finances are tight.

The double-digit growth rates the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) have seen in the past are also expected to slow to a collective growth rate of 0.3%. India still remains the bright spot within that group, while Russia is experiencing a severe cut back in consumer spending and is predicted to drop significantly.

The outlook for converged mobile devices (also known as smartphones) has also been scaled back as a result of the industry's changing dynamics. The previously stated 8.7% growth has been reduced to 3.4% as IDC expects all segments to be effected. In the years to come the industry will undoubtedly migrate more toward the converged device segment, yet in tough economic times the high price point these devices carry can tend to stand out in the consumers eye. The notion that this segment will remain in positive growth while the industry expects an 8.3% downturn speaks volumes about the potential upside for these devices when the market turns.

(Percentages represent year-over-year growth)

Region	Device Type	2008	2009	2010
USA	Converged Mobile Device	68.2%	7.9%	28.4%
	Traditional Mobile Phone	-13.8%	-20.3%	-1.2%
	Total Market	-4.7%	-14.8%	6.1%