The global recession will make the next two years unusually difficult for the cellphone industry, reports In-Stat.
They claim Subscription growth is slowing, so roughly three quarters of handset
unit sales are expected to be replacement models, a discretionary
purchase that can be delayed in times of economic hardship. The
market's eventual recovery will be influenced by technical advances.
"Revenues will recover more rapidly than shipments due to sales of
cellphones with new technology (LTE and TD-SCDMA) that command higher
prices," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst. "The increased penetration
of higher-priced smartphones, particularly in the US, will speed
revenue recovery as well."
Recent research by In-Stat found the following:
- Handset shipments will decline 20% in 2009.
- LTE will drive $1.3 billion in North American handset revenue in 2013.
- Asia Pacific will see the slowest handset shipment growth among geographic regions over the next 5 years.
The research, "The Recession Reshapes the Worldwide Cellular Handset 5-Year Forecast" (#IN0904433WH), covers the worldwide market for cellular phones. It includes:
- Revised analysis using new data about the current economic downturn.
- Forecasts of global mobile phone shipments, revenue, and average selling price by region and technology.
- Comparisons with previous forecasts and discussion about the effects of current economic conditions.
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