A ChangeWave smartphone survey found that the next 90 day projections show the most extensive growth in consumer smartphone sales ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey. They looked at
demand for the new Apple iPhone 4 and the HTC Droid Incredible, along
with the impact these and other offerings are having on the rest of the
smart phone industry.
Apple and HTC are taking over from Motorola and RIM. There's a huge increase in demand for the Apple OS and an accelerating
downturn for the RIM OS.
Consumer smartphone planned buying going forward is at an all-time
high for a ChangeWave survey - with 16.4% of respondents, saying they plan on buying a smart phone in the next 90 days.
At the individual manufacturers' level, the survey findings show a
major leap forward for Apple and HTC at the expense of RIM and Motorola.
In terms of current share, Apple (34%) is up 1-pt since our March
survey to an all-time high while RIM (34%) has taken another hit -
dropping 4-pts in the past 90 days.
Android phones continue to have a major impact on the market, with
HTC (8%; up 2-pts) and its new Droid Incredible and EVO models the
biggest beneficiary. Motorola (6%), who in recent surveys had registered
a wave of new demand for their Droid model, remains unchanged in the
When looking at future buying plans the huge moves
upward for Apple and HTC become most apparent. The new Apple iPhone 4 is
driving much of the industry's growth going forward, with more than
one-in-two (52%) respondents who plan to buy a smart phone in the next
HTC (19%) also shows a huge improvement going forward - registering a
7-pt jump in terms of future buying plans. On the other hand, Motorola
(9%) has declined 7-pts since previously.
In short, as the following chart shows, the market for Android phones over the next 90 days has shifted to HTC while Motorola's rise huge rise over the previous two surveys has stalled out.
The biggest loser of all in the current survey is RIM
(6%), which has registered an 8-pt drop to its lowest level ever in a
Palm has also been buried in the wave of momentum for Apple and HTC.
For the first time in a ChangeWave survey, Palm is registering less
than 1% of planned smart phone purchases going forward.
The Apple iPhone continues to lead all other cell phone makers, with 73% of owners reporting they are Very Satisfied with their iPhone.
HTC - with 39% of their customers saying they're Very Satisfied - comes in second, followed by Motorola (34%) and Palm (34%).
In a clear sign of what's most hurting RIM, the Canadian manufacturer
has fallen to sixth place in terms of customer satisfaction (30%) -
their seventh consecutive quarterly decline.
The new iPhone 4 and the iOS 4 have brought about a huge spike in
demand for Apple going forward. In addition, HTC has grabbed the lead
in Android OS phones based upon the huge momentum of its Droid
Incredible and that of other HTC Android models, including the new EVO
The combined momentum of these latest Apple and HTC offerings has
catapulted consumer interest in smart phones to unprecedented levels -
with consumer planned buying now at an all-time high for a ChangeWave
Importantly, the momentum for Apple and HTC is occurring at the
expense of other smart phone manufacturers - Motorola and Research in
Motion in particular.
Motorola - previously the Android leader with the astonishing success
of its Droid model - has seen its rise at least temporarily upended by
the latest HTC offerings. However, the recent unveiling of MOT's new
Droid X device - featuring a 4.3-inch display, which the company
believes is ideal for watching video (in contrast, the iPhone 4 only has
a 3.5-inch display) - suggests it's determined to fight back to regain
its Android leadership mantle.
The market situation for RIM appears far more problematic, at least
short term. RIM's customer satisfaction ratings have plummeted for the
past 7 quarters, and planned buying among consumers is at the lowest
levels ever recorded for RIM in a ChangeWave survey.
In short, in recent quarters RIM models appear to have lost their
'cool factor,' and the onus is now squarely on RIM to regain consumers'
confidence in their products. To do so they need new, highly compelling
offerings that can compete on an equal footing with the best that Apple
and Android have to offer. Otherwise, RIM's future growth may
increasingly be limited to the success or failure of its lower cost
models on the international market.