Evercore Partners predicts that 2012 is not going to be a very good year for PC sales while tablets especially the iPad are taking away market share from PCs.
Rob Cihra predicted that traditional computer sales would drop 4% year-over-year and the third quarter of 2012 while overall PC growth will be flat.
He noted that sales of tablets like apples iPad are responsible for at least half of the PC markets' current decline.
Apple sold 16.5 million iPad units in the June quarter. He predicted that Apple will sell 69 million iPads in calendar year 2012, at more than 60 percent of the market, even in the face of competition from Microsoft's Surface tablets and Google's Nexus 7.
Cihra contends that a quarter of tablet purchases are t replacements for PCs, while another quarter are "effectively" replacing PCs. Many users delay buying a new computer and get an iPad or another tablet.
"PCs now need to compete both directly/functionally and more so indirectly (for discretionary spend/mindshare) against 'thin client' architectures/ecosystems," Cihra wrote.
The prices for tablets, in the past, have been close for PCs and tablets like the iPad which cost around $500. We bought a notebook PC for less than the price of an iPad. We are wondering when the Nexus 7 gains traction how it will affect PC sales. The optimal solution is something like the Transformer Pad Infinity a table that turns into a netbook with matching netbook-like keyboard.
The Nexus 7 priced at $199.99 is not in the same price range as a PC and may act more like an eReader than a tablet. The expectation are high for the Google tablet from users who want Apple care at Kindle prices. Many buyers of the Nexus 7 are perturbed that retail GameStop preorders arrived sooner than those who ordered directly from the Google Play store.
There are also rumors that the 7.85" iPad mini will be coming out in the fall which due to its smaller size is less of a PC competitor.